Gambler's Fallacy
Spot the Fallacy Team
Team Content
The gambler's fallacy assumes past random events make a future outcome more likely.
The gambler's fallacy assumes past random events make a future outcome more likely.
Why it is a fallacy
A claim needs evidence that connects the reasons to the conclusion. This fallacy skips that connection or replaces it with a shortcut.
Examples
- It has been heads five times, so tails is due.
- We lost three games, so we are guaranteed a win.
- After many rainy days, sunshine must come tomorrow.
How to respond
- Remind that independent events do not influence each other.
- Ask for evidence that the probability has changed.
- Focus on actual odds, not streaks.
Related fallacies
FAQ
When is a streak meaningful?
Only when events are dependent or probabilities actually change.
How do I avoid gambler's fallacy?
Use real probabilities and treat each event independently.
References
- Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fallacies)
- Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Logic and Critical Thinking)
- Nizkor Project (Fallacies)