Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Spot the Fallacy Team
Team Content
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy cherry-picks data that fits a pattern while ignoring the rest.
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy cherry-picks data that fits a pattern while ignoring the rest.
Why it is a fallacy
A claim needs evidence that connects the reasons to the conclusion. This fallacy skips that connection or replaces it with a shortcut.
Examples
- We found a cluster of cases near the factory, so it must be the cause.
- These five data points prove the trend, ignore the rest.
- Look at these cherry-picked years to show the policy worked.
How to respond
- Ask for the full dataset and overall distribution.
- Check whether the pattern is statistically significant.
- Look for data that does not fit the claimed pattern.
Related fallacies
FAQ
Why is it called Texas sharpshooter?
It refers to drawing a target around random bullet holes to make them look precise.
How can I avoid it?
Use complete data and define hypotheses before looking at outcomes.
References
- Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fallacies)
- Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Logic and Critical Thinking)
- Nizkor Project (Fallacies)